A Comparative Study on the Impact of the Combination of “Aging Population” and “Low Birth Rate” on the Consumption of Urban and Rural Residents in China

——Empirical Study Based on Chinese Family Tracking Survey Data

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-690-1_21How to use a DOI?

Keywords

“Aging”; ‘Low birth rate’; Urban and rural residents; Family tracking survey data

Abstract

“Aging” and “low birth rate” are the main trends in China’s current and future population structure changes, How to seize the opportunities and risks brought by the combination of “aging population” and “low birth rate” to the consumption of urban and rural residents in China is an important issue that urgently needs to be addressed. This article is based on micro level household tracking survey data in China, and conducts empirical research on the impact of the combination of “aging” and “low birth rate” on Chinese residents’ consumption, and compares and analyzes the urban-rural gap in this impact Heterogeneity and regional heterogeneity. Research has found that overall, “aging” will have a “crowding out effect” on consumption, while “declining birth rates” have a promoting effect on consumption. However, the combination of “aging” and “low birth rate” still has a positive promoting effect on household consumption of urban residents in China, and this positive promoting effect shows a trend of decreasing in the east, west, and east. However, it has produced a significant “crowding out effect” on the consumption of rural households, and the combined effects of “aging” and “low birth rate” on the consumption of households in different regions of China, such as the east, west, and east, will show significant regional differences due to the heterogeneity of household nature (urban or rural). Specifically, the combination of “aging” and “low birth rate” has a promoting effect on household consumption among rural residents in the eastern region, while in the central and western regions, it has a “crowding out effect”, and this “crowding out effect” is stronger in the western region.

Copyright

© 2025 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Ziyang Ma
AU  - Yuanyuan Gao
AU  - Rongwei Ma
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/04/23
TI  - A Comparative Study on the Impact of the Combination of “Aging Population” and “Low Birth Rate” on the Consumption of Urban and Rural Residents in China
BT  - Proceedings of the 2024 6th International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering (ICEMME 2024)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 214
EP  - 226
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-690-1_21
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-690-1_21
ID  - Ma2025
ER  -