Downscaling Future Climate Changes Using SDSM Under RCP Scenarios in Selected Areas of Bangladesh

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-884-4_60How to use a DOI?

Keywords

SDSM; RCP4.5; RCP8.5; Rainfall prediction; Climate change; CanESM2

Abstract

This study used the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to project climate change patterns, focusing on mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios: RCP4.5, representing moderate emissions, and RCP8.5, reflecting high emissions. The predictions conducted for the three future periods, i.e., 2025s (near term), 2040 (medium term) and 2090 (long term), and the results exhibited that the presentation of the SDSM is satisfactory in the downscaling of daily rainfall during the calibration and validation. Overall, the model fallouts demonstrate that the mean annual precipitation in the Chittagong district will significantly increase, whereas in Cox’s Bazar areas, it is expected to increase moderately over the next century. On the seasonal measure, the most significant rise is noticed in the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon in Chittagong station, while the yearly cumulative rainfall presented a gradual increase by 15 – 46% and by 17–94% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 situation correspondingly compared to the standard periods. In contrast, the most vital increase is noticed in the winter season, but in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, rainfall increased gradually while post-monsoon seasons showed a negative trend. In Cox’s Bazar station, the annual cumulative rainfall gradually increased by 14–25% for the RCP4.5 scenario and 10–40% for the RCP8.5 scenario compared to the baseline periods. Thus, it is envisaged that these findings would be helpful for the Decision Support System (DSS) for future water management actions.

Copyright

© 2025 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Md. Mizanur Rahman
AU  - Aysha Akter
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/11/18
TI  - Downscaling Future Climate Changes Using SDSM Under RCP Scenarios in Selected Areas of Bangladesh
BT  - Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Engineering Research, Innovation, and Education 2025 (ICERIE 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 503
EP  - 510
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-884-4_60
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-884-4_60
ID  - Rahman2025
ER  -