Research on Investment Decision making for Flexibility Transformation of Thermal Power Units Based on Fuzzy Real Options

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-702-1_55How to use a DOI?

Keywords

coal-fired power unit upgrade; trapezoidal fuzzy numbers; B-S option pricing model; risk-free interest rate; economic evaluation; carbon peak and carbon neutrality

Abstract

The flexibility transformation of thermal power units is of great significance in regulation, and thus it is crucial to study its economic evaluation. Traditional investment decision-making methods often neglect the uncertainty factors that are difficult to precisely quantify during the evaluation process. This paper puts forward a method based on trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and variable risk-free interest rates, and utilizes an improved B - S option pricing model to enhance its economic evaluation. By introducing trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to deal with uncertainty factors, the model’s capacity to handle uncertainty in investment decisions is theoretically enhanced. Through the experiment on the flexibility transformation of thermal power units, the results indicate that this method demonstrates remarkable superiority in terms of the accuracy and reliability of economic evaluation, with an improved performance compared to traditional methods, thereby providing a new perspective and approach for economic evaluation.

Copyright

© 2025 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Runsheng Ma
AU  - Zhengwei Wang
AU  - Shengyun Ju
AU  - Wenjie Zhu
AU  - Zijin Jiao
AU  - Jialin Wu
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/05/05
TI  - Research on Investment Decision making for Flexibility Transformation of Thermal Power Units Based on Fuzzy Real Options
BT  - Proceedings of the 2025 10th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 523
EP  - 533
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-702-1_55
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-702-1_55
ID  - Ma2025
ER  -