The Fluctuation of International Crude Oil Prices, Uncertainty in Global Economic Policies and Uncertainty in China’s Foreign Trade Policies

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-702-1_71How to use a DOI?

Keywords

International Crude Oil Prices; Global Economic Policies; China’s Trade Policies; Policy Uncertainty

Abstract

Crude oil is a crucial resource for industries, and its price fluctuations directly impact the global economy and international trade, drawing significant international attention. This study, based on the TVP-VAR model, employs impulse response analysis and variance decomposition to dynamically capture changes and deeply explore the relationships between international crude oil prices, global economic policies, and China’s trade policy uncertainty. The research findings indicate that the impact of international crude oil prices on the uncertainty of global economic policies exhibits lagged differences. International crude oil prices negatively influence the uncertainty of China’s trade policies. Changes in global economic policies also affect the uncertainty of China’s trade policies. The impact of China’s trade policy uncertainty on the uncertainty of global economic policies is relatively small and can be essentially ignored. In the context of fluctuations in international oil prices, maintaining energy security should involve comprehensive and systematic policy measures to prevent international oil price fluctuations, safeguard economic stability, promote trade development, and address global challenges.

Copyright

© 2025 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Xingjian Yao
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/05/05
TI  - The Fluctuation of International Crude Oil Prices, Uncertainty in Global Economic Policies and Uncertainty in China’s Foreign Trade Policies
BT  - Proceedings of the 2025 10th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 678
EP  - 687
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-702-1_71
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-702-1_71
ID  - Yao2025
ER  -