Proceedings of the 2026 11th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2026)

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From Geopolitics to Market Sentiment: Explaining Tin Price Bubbles with GSADF Approach

Authors
Jinglin Zhao1, Qiulin Yang2, *
1School of Humanities and Social Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), 518172, Shenzhen, China
2Business School, Shenzhen Technology University, 518118, Shenzhen, China
*Corresponding author. Email: yangqiulin@sztu.edu.cn
Corresponding Author
Qiulin Yang
Available Online 29 April 2026.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6239-642-5_44How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Tin; Nonferrous Metal; Price Bubbles; GSADF
Abstract

With the rapid development of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, the strategic importance of tin has become increasingly prominent. In recent years, the persistent imbalance between tin supply and demand has attracted widespread attention in global markets. This paper examines the formation and dissipation of speculative price bubbles in the tin market, investigating the underlying drivers that contribute to these phenomena. Using daily futures settlement prices from April 1, 2015, to June 30, 2025, obtained from the WIND database, this paper applies the Generalised Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) method to detect periodic bubble behaviour in tin prices empirically. It analyses the driving mechanisms by tracing the temporal evolution of these bubbles. The results indicate that three categories of factors primarily drive bubble formation: (1) geopolitical risks, (2) domestic macroeconomic policies and institutional arrangements, and (3) social and market behaviours. These factors indirectly fuel tin price surges by influencing supply or demand dynamics. Moreover, emotional volatility in financial markets and the amplification of irrational economic behaviour contribute to the accumulation and expansion of price bubbles.

Copyright
© 2026 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2026 11th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2026)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
29 April 2026
ISBN
978-94-6239-642-5
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6239-642-5_44How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2026 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Jinglin Zhao
AU  - Qiulin Yang
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/04/29
TI  - From Geopolitics to Market Sentiment: Explaining Tin Price Bubbles with GSADF Approach
BT  - Proceedings of the 2026 11th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2026)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 450
EP  - 459
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-642-5_44
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-642-5_44
ID  - Zhao2026
ER  -