The Rise of Peripheral Economies under Geopolitical Conflict and Supply Chain Restructuring as Evidenced by a Quasi-Natural Experiment in Vietnam

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-642-5_62How to use a DOI?

Keywords

US-China Trade War; Vietnam Economy; Supply Chain Restructuring; DID; Regional Development

Abstract

Against the backdrop of deglobalization and intensified great power competition, global supply chains are undergoing profound structural adjustments. Using the latest cross-country panel data from Wind, this paper treats the 2018 US-China trade friction as an exogenous shock, employing the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method with Driscoll-Kraay robust standard errors to evaluate the net effect on Vietnam’s economic growth as an “alternative manufacturing base.” The findings indicate: The trade war significantly promoted Vietnam’s economic growth, increasing its real GDP per capita by approximately 15.7% relative to the counterfactual scenario; Dynamic effect tests show that this dividend is persistent and cumulative, peaking in 2022, verifying the time-lag effect of industrial chain transfer; Placebo tests further rule out the interference of global common shocks. This study suggests that during periods of rising geopolitical uncertainty, peripheral economies with strong absorption capacity can achieve catch-up growth through the “friend-shoring” of supply chains.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Yuxuan Zhang
AU  - Yangxin Wang
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/04/29
TI  - The Rise of Peripheral Economies under Geopolitical Conflict and Supply Chain Restructuring as Evidenced by a Quasi-Natural Experiment in Vietnam
BT  - Proceedings of the 2026 11th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2026)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 631
EP  - 636
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-642-5_62
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-642-5_62
ID  - Zhang2026
ER  -