A Hybrid ARIMA–Lasso and PSO Approach for Techno-economic Optimization of Long-Term Indonesia’s Renewable Energy Transition

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-944-5_17How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Technoeconomic analysis; Electricity demand forecasting; ARIMA–Lasso; Particle Swarm Optimization; Energy transition

Abstract

Indonesia’s rising electricity demand and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions require strategic long-term energy planning. This study proposes an integrated framework that combines ARIMA–Lasso forecasting with Par-ticle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to project electricity consumption and optimize the renewable energy mix for the period 2025–2045. Historical data from 1995 to 2024 were used to forecast national electricity demand, revealing a steady increase from 417,766 GWh in 2025 to 668,767 GWh in 2045, representing approximately 60% growth over two decades. The ARIMA–Lasso hybrid model effectively captures temporal patterns while mitigating overfitting, producing robust demand projections. Using these forecasts, PSO optimization identifies the least-cost renewable energy portfolio to meet national targets of 23% renewable energy by 2030 and 46% by 2045. Results show a balanced expansion across biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar, and wind, with solar and wind experiencing the most significant growth. Total investment requirements are estimated at USD 11.6 billion over the planning period, with annual costs rising from USD 3.69 billion in 2030 to USD 6.85 billion in 2045. The proposed framework provides a flexible and adaptive approach to linking electricity demand projections with technoeconomic optimization, offering practical guidance for policymakers to achieve Indonesia’s Golden 2045 vision. By integrating statistical forecasting and metaheuristic optimization, this study contributes a replicable methodology for sustainable energy transition planning in developing economies.

Copyright

© 2025 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Mohammad Mahruf Alam
AU  - Arvina Rizqi Nurul’aini
AU  - Harianingsih Harianingsih
AU  - Rizky Ajie Aprilianto
AU  - Nur Anita
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/12/26
TI  - A Hybrid ARIMA–Lasso and PSO Approach for Techno-economic Optimization of Long-Term Indonesia’s Renewable Energy Transition
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Sustainable Energy: Toward Energy Transition and Net-Zero Emission (ICOSE 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 231
EP  - 246
SN  - 3005-155X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-944-5_17
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-944-5_17
ID  - Alam2025
ER  -