Modeling Land Cover Dynamics and Climate Regulation Services Using FLUS: A Spatial Decision Support Approach

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-944-5_27How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Spatial Decision Support (SDS); land use change model; FLUS; ecosystem services; urban planning

Abstract

Urban physical expansion poses a threat to environmental sustainability at the local, regional, and global levels. Urbanization will have implications for land conversion, from green land to built-up land. This process will certainly have a direct impact on ecosystem services, one of which is climate regulation and carbon sequestration. The study aims to develop a robust Spatial Decision Support (SDS) that integrates Land Cover Change Models with Ecosystem Services (ECS) assessments for climate regulation, using the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) framework. Three land use scenarios—Business as Usual (BAU), Moderate (MOD), and Conservative (CON)—were simulated to project land cover dynamics from 2023 to 2050. This model combines physical, socio-economic and accessibility factors to estimate the probability of land cover transition explicitly spatially. Information on land cover dynamics will be the basis for assessing the capacity of ecosystem services. The main findings of this study reveal that the BAU scenario has implications for a significant reduction in ECS, especially in suburban areas, while the CON scenario can maintain high-value ECS zones and suppress the growth rate of built land in green areas. The MOD scenario provides partial mitigation but remains vulnerable to long-term degradation. Moreover, the study also introduces a policy matrix based on the value and rate of ECS decline. This matrix allows for targeted interventions such as conservation zoning, agroforestry promotion, PES schemes, and urban growth limits. This information enhances the integration of spatial planning with ecological priorities to support a sustainable urban future.

Copyright

© 2025 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Dhoni Wicaksono
AU  - Adhistya Erna Permanasari
AU  - Silmi Fauziati
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/12/26
TI  - Modeling Land Cover Dynamics and Climate Regulation Services Using FLUS: A Spatial Decision Support Approach
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Sustainable Energy: Toward Energy Transition and Net-Zero Emission (ICOSE 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 416
EP  - 431
SN  - 3005-155X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-944-5_27
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-944-5_27
ID  - Wicaksono2025
ER  -