Lifecycle Emission Trade-offs of Electric and Gasoline Vehicles in China

DOI

10.2991/978-2-38476-475-4_129How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Electric Vehicles; Lifecycle Assessment; Carbon Emissions; Battery Recycling; Grid Emission Factor

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) are widely promoted as a sustainable alternative to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), often marketed as “zero-emission” despite significant upstream emissions from electricity generation and battery production. This study evaluates the full lifecycle environmental impact of EVs and ICEVs under China’s energy and recycling infrastructure conditions. A parametric model is developed based on life-cycle assessment (LCA) principles, incorporating operational emissions (based on real-world driving data and fuel/electricity consumption), production-phase emissions, and end-of-life pollution from battery disposal. Key variables include vehicle usage duration, grid emission factor, and battery recycling rates. Using China-specific parameters—such as a 540 g CO₂/kWh electricity emission factor and 17.3 kWh/100 km EV consumption—the model calculates annual and cumulative emissions across vehicle lifespans. Results show that EVs only outperform ICEVs in total carbon emissions after approximately 2.75 years of use under current grid conditions. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that this crossover point may shift depending on regional electricity mix and improvements in battery recycling infrastructure. The study also reveals that, without proper battery disposal systems, EVs could generate 18–22% more heavy metal pollution than ICEVs by 2030. These findings challenge the oversimplified “zero-emission” label and underscore the need for region-specific policy interventions. The model provides a replicable, flexible tool for comparing lifecycle pollution under different scenarios and supports a more realistic understanding of EV sustainability in fossil-fuel-dominant systems like China.

Copyright

© 2025 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Haipeng Lyu
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/11/11
TI  - Lifecycle Emission Trade-offs of Electric and Gasoline Vehicles in China
BT  - Proceedings of the 2025 10th International Conference on Modern Management, Education and Social Sciences (MMET 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 1171
EP  - 1182
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-2-38476-475-4_129
DO  - 10.2991/978-2-38476-475-4_129
ID  - Lyu2025
ER  -