Comparison of Assistance Policies for Vulnerable Groups Based on Markov Models

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-825-2_56How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Vulnerable groups; Markov chain; Employment assistance; Education and training; Robustness analysis

Abstract

Employment assistance for vulnerable groups involves basic living security and sustained income growth. This group dynamically transitions between unemployment, temporary employment, low-income employment, and high-income employment. The mechanisms and durations of these three types of assistance measures differ, making it difficult to reflect the phased effects of policies at a single point in time. This paper constructs a four-state Markov reward model with a common benchmark of no new policy implementation. It sets up scenarios of living allowances, job support, and education and training, and uses a time-varying transition matrix to describe the gradual formation of training effects. The model compares policy paths over 12, 36, and 60 months from four dimensions: unemployment rate, cumulative discounted benefits, employment quality, and high-income employment rate. The robustness of the policy ranking is tested through 5000 parameter simulations. Numerical simulations show that the three types of policies each have phased advantages in terms of living security, employment entry, and employment quality improvement. Early income security, concurrent job matching, and subsequent skills enhancement can form a continuous assistance path, providing a quantitative basis for phased allocation of policy resources.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Yike Chang
AU  - Hui Wu
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/11/10
TI  - Comparison of Assistance Policies for Vulnerable Groups Based on Markov Models
BT  - Proceedings of the 2026 5th International Conference on Public Service, Economic Management and Sustainable Development (PESD 2026)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 579
EP  - 591
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-825-2_56
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-825-2_56
ID  - Chang2026
ER  -