Proceedings of the 2025 4th International Conference on Big Data Economy and Digital Management (BDEDM 2025)

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Risk Analysis of Cost for Replacing Online Monitoring Devices Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

Authors
Shuo Wang1, *
1Beijing Electric Power Economic and Technical Research Institute, 5 Nanfengweilu, Xicheng District, Beijing, China
*Corresponding author. Email: 151087644@qq.com
Corresponding Author
Shuo Wang
Available Online 14 May 2025.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-710-6_13How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Online Monitoring Device; ost Risk; Monte Carlo Simulation; Kernel Density Estimation; Sensitivity Analysis
Abstract

With the growth in electricity demand and the advancement of smart grid initiatives, replacing online monitoring devices as a technical transformation project plays a crucial role in the real-time monitoring and intelligent management of transmission line operation status. However, due to various uncertainties such as equipment unit prices, quantities, and technical scheme selection, the cost risks of such projects exhibit significant volatility. This paper focuses on the online monitoring device replacement project completed in 2023 in S Province, China. It applies Monte Carlo simulation, combining kernel density estimation, Bernoulli distribution, and discrete uniform distribution, to fit and simulate the distribution of key risk factors. Through simulation results, the study identifies unit price and quantity as the major risk factors affecting the total cost of such projects and offers suggestions for optimizing budget preparation and risk control for each risk factor. The research findings can provide decision-making support for cost control in similar projects and contribute to the efficient construction of smart grid systems.

Copyright
© 2025 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2025 4th International Conference on Big Data Economy and Digital Management (BDEDM 2025)
Series
Advances in Intelligent Systems Research
Publication Date
14 May 2025
ISBN
978-94-6463-710-6
ISSN
1951-6851
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-710-6_13How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2025 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Shuo Wang
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/05/14
TI  - Risk Analysis of Cost for Replacing Online Monitoring Devices Based on Monte Carlo Simulation
BT  - Proceedings of the 2025 4th International Conference on Big Data Economy and Digital Management (BDEDM 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 99
EP  - 111
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-710-6_13
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-710-6_13
ID  - Wang2025
ER  -