Quantitative Analysis of Late-Stage Diversion Risk of Cascade Hydropower Stations Based on Monte-Carlo Random Simulation: A Case Study of the Wudongde–Baihetan Hydropower Cascade

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-600-5_34How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Late-Stage Diversion Risk; Cascade Hydropower Station; Monte-Carlo Simulation; Wudongde–Baihetan

Abstract

The construction period of cascade hydropower stations is typically long, and the initial impoundment storage is large. Once an extreme flood exceeding the design standard occurs, insufficient discharge capacity may lead to severe economic losses and casualties. Considering the overlapping mid- to late-stage diversion periods of upstream and downstream high dams, where diversion risks are compounded, transmitted, and dynamically variable, this study proposes a Monte Carlo based model for assessing late-stage diversion risk in cascade hydropower stations. By incorporating uncertainties in natural floods, upstream discharge capacity, and downstream backwater effects, stochastic construction-period flood hydrographs are generated, and diversion risk rates during the flood season are quantified. An engineering application to the Wudongde and Baihetan cascade shows that the equivalent return periods of the late-stage diversion for Wudongde and Baihetan are 877 years and 961 years, respectively, both of which exceed their design flood standards. Joint operation of the cascade reduces the diversion risk rates of Wudongde and Baihetan by 0.034% and 0.073%, respectively. The findings provide quantitative support for improving flood-control safety and optimizing construction-period scheduling for high dams.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Ze Yu
AU  - Wenbo Wei
AU  - Yuan Jiang
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/02/26
TI  - Quantitative Analysis of Late-Stage Diversion Risk of Cascade Hydropower Stations Based on Monte-Carlo Random Simulation: A Case Study of the Wudongde–Baihetan Hydropower Cascade
BT  - Proceedings of the 2025 8th International Conference on Civil Architecture, Hydropower and Engineering Management (CAHEM 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 347
EP  - 360
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-600-5_34
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-600-5_34
ID  - Yu2026
ER  -