Surface Water Resources Prediction in Danjiangkou Basin Based on ESP Concept and Distributed Hydrological Model

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-728-1_65How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Prediction of Water Resources; ESP; Wetspa Model

Abstract

The prediction of surface water resources quantity in the Danjiangkou Basin is of great significance. However, the accuracy of mid- to long-term hydrological forecasts is slightly lower compared to short-term forecasts. In order to enhance the reliability of mid- to long-term forecasts and predict water resources quantity, this paper proposes a forecasting and prediction system based on the concept of Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and distributed hydrological models. In this paper, a prediction and forecasting system for the annual surface water resources quantity in the Danjiangkou Basin is proposed based on the Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) concept and a distributed hydrological model. Using the distributed hydrological model Wetspa, flood inflows into the Danjiangkou Reservoir are forecasted. The period from 2006 to 2012 is used for calibration, while the period from 2013 to 2016 is for validation. The Nash efficiency coefficients for monthly average runoff during the calibration and validation periods are 0.97 and 0.95, respectively, indicating good predictive performance. Building upon this, assuming precipitation for 2017 can be forecasted by a rainfall prediction model, the rainfall process is derived using ESP, and the runoff process at the basin outlet is obtained through the established Wetspa model. Consequently, the predicted surface water resources quantity for the control basin of Danjiangkou in 2017 is calculated to be 454.48 billion m3, while the computed quantity is 403.95 billion m3, resulting in a relative error of 12.51%. The results demonstrate that the prediction of surface water resources quantity in the Danjiangkou Basin based on the ESP concept and distributed hydrological model can provide valuable insights for the water diversion scheme of the Danjiangkou Reservoir.

Copyright

© 2025 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Ruifang Yuan
AU  - Yunxiang Lan
AU  - Junliang Shen
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/05/19
TI  - Surface Water Resources Prediction in Danjiangkou Basin Based on ESP Concept and Distributed Hydrological Model
BT  - Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Green Building, Civil Engineering and Smart City (GBCESC 2024)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 697
EP  - 706
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-728-1_65
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-728-1_65
ID  - Yuan2025
ER  -