US–China Trade War and Indonesia’s Food Security: Evidence from Household Microsimulation

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-709-5_22How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Trade War; Food Security; Microsimulation

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the US–China trade war on Indonesia’s trade dynamics and food security using a microsimulation approach. By modeling 500 simulated households and projecting outcomes from 2020 to 2045, the research analyzes how tariff-induced shocks to staple commodities affect household welfare, food affordability, and trade flows. Results reveal that tariff shocks consistently increase food insecurity, particularly for rice, vegetable oil, wheat, and horticultural products. Notably, food security outcomes converge across optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic scenarios, underscoring the structural nature of global trade disruptions. Quintile-based analysis shows that while the poorest households remain persistently vulnerable, the most pronounced increases in food insecurity occur among middle and upper-middle-income groups, challenging conventional assumptions about vulnerability being concentrated only among the poor. At the commodity level, impacts are heterogeneous: sugar and chicken benefit from export gains in some simulations, whereas wheat, milk, and rice demonstrate heightened volatility and dependency on imports. These findings highlight the broad-based and long-term consequences of global trade conflicts for Indonesia’s food system. Policy recommendations include diversifying import sources, strengthening domestic agricultural productivity, expanding social protection to middle-income groups, and enhancing regional cooperation. The study underscores the importance of forward-looking, inclusive, and adaptive strategies to safeguard Indonesia’s food security in the context of global uncertainties and in pursuit of Indonesia Emas 2045.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Abd Rahman Razak
AU  - Aditya Idris
AU  - Andi Muhammad Arnan Rahman
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/06/20
TI  - US–China Trade War and Indonesia’s Food Security: Evidence from Household Microsimulation
BT  - Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Accounting, Management, and Economics (10th ICAME 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 297
EP  - 317
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-709-5_22
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-709-5_22
ID  - Razak2026
ER  -