Proceedings of the 2025 4th International Conference on Bigdata Blockchain and Economy Management (ICBBEM 2025)

<Previous Article In Volume
Next Article In Volume>

Research on the Dynamic Effect of Geopolitical Risk on Bulk Commodity Market-Based on Big Data

Authors
Kun Ma1, Zhenghao Wei1, *
1School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Science and Technology, Shijiazhuang, 050018, China
*Corresponding author. Email: 1187911849@qq.com
Corresponding Author
Zhenghao Wei
Available Online 31 May 2025.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-742-7_37How to use a DOI?
Keywords
geopolitical risk; bulk commodities; dynamic effect; big data; time series model
Abstract

Due to the increasing geopolitical risks, bulk commodity prices have experienced frequent and great fluctuation, which has aroused global concern. The dynamic effect of geopolitical risk on bulk commodity market is still under discussion. This paper clarifies the impact mechanism of geopolitical risks on bulk commodity market from both supply and demand sides, and uses TVP-SV-VAR model to verify it. The results show that geopolitical risk has a significant positive impact on bulk commodity prices due to consumers’ panic consumption and pressure in global supply chain. In the short term, the prices of bulk commodity increase sharply in dual sides, and in the medium to long term, the impact of geopolitical risk will change from negative to zero. By comparison, it is also found that the impact of different geographical events on the bulk commodity market varies and some events may have greater impact on supply chain, while others on consumers’ decision. Based on the results, it is suggested that the governments should improve emergency management capabilities, stabilize market supply through multiple channels, and calm consumer’s sentiment to mitigate the shock by geographical emergencies on the bulk market.

Copyright
© 2025 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Download article (PDF)

<Previous Article In Volume
Next Article In Volume>
Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2025 4th International Conference on Bigdata Blockchain and Economy Management (ICBBEM 2025)
Series
Advances in Intelligent Systems Research
Publication Date
31 May 2025
ISBN
978-94-6463-742-7
ISSN
1951-6851
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-742-7_37How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2025 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Kun Ma
AU  - Zhenghao Wei
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/05/31
TI  - Research on the Dynamic Effect of Geopolitical Risk on Bulk Commodity Market-Based on Big Data
BT  - Proceedings of the 2025 4th International Conference on Bigdata Blockchain and Economy Management (ICBBEM 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 356
EP  - 367
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-742-7_37
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-742-7_37
ID  - Ma2025
ER  -