Vietnam’s Economy and the Balance of Payment: An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Factors, 2008 - 2023

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-622-7_5How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Balance of Payment (BOP); Balance of Trade (BOT); FDI; CPI; Interest Rates

Abstract

Research purpose: This study investigates the influence of economic factors on Vietnam’s Balance of Payments (BOP) from 2008 to 2023. The economic indicators in the study include interest rates, trade balance, foreign direct investment (FDI), and consumer price index (CPI), which are used to determine the extent to which they affect the fluctuations of the BOP.

Research motivation: This study is driven by economic changes and challenges from external shocks as Vietnam becomes increasingly deeply integrated into the global economy. Investigating the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the balance of payments helps provide a basis for policymakers to develop appropriate macroeconomic management measures, contributing to the stability of the balance of payments and sustainable economic development.

Research design, approach, and method: We applied various statistical tools and techniques to examine the relationship between interest rates, trade balance, foreign direct investment, consumer price index and the balance of payments (BOP), followed by building and running a regression model using STATA software to test the model’s suitability and analyze the results.

Main findings: The findings show that the model is statistically significant (F-statistic value = 8.51; p-value < 0.05), but the model’s capability is not high (R² = 0.3739), indicating that the model only explains a portion of the variation in the dependent variable. Among the four independent variables, only the trade balance (BOT) has a positive and statistically significant impact on the BOP (coefficient = 0.66391; p-value = 0.001), while interest rates, FDI, and CPI do not show statistical significance during the study period.

Practical/ managerial implications: The findings underscore the pivotal role of trade efficiency in strengthening the balance of payments, reflecting its broader significance for economic resilience and structural stability. Policies should focus on stable trade strategies that boost exports, reduce import dependence, and ensure a steady trade environment to promote macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Phuong T. Nguyen
AU  - My-Hanh Duong
AU  - H.-Anh Nguyen
AU  - Hien T. Nguyen
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/04/21
TI  - Vietnam’s Economy and the Balance of Payment: An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Factors, 2008 - 2023
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Emerging Challenges: Business Dynamics in Disruptive Economy (ICECH 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 61
EP  - 81
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-622-7_5
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-622-7_5
ID  - Nguyen2026
ER  -