Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference of Economics, Management, Accounting, and Business Digital (ICEMAB 2025)

<Previous Article In Volume
Next Article In Volume>

Analysis And Forecasting of Inflation Rate in Indonesia

Authors
Revi Anggreni1, *, Ayu Wulandari1, Agung Rizki Putra1
1Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Bangka Belitung, Pangkalpinang, Indonesia
*Corresponding author. Email: revianggreni33@gmail.com
Corresponding Author
Revi Anggreni
Available Online 25 December 2025.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-974-2_2How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Forecasting; SARIMA; Inflation; Indonesia
Abstract

This study aims to forecast the inflation rate in Indonesia for the period from January 2025 to December 2027. The analytical method used is SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). The data consist of monthly inflation figures from 34 provinces in Indonesia, obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), covering the period from January 2020 to December 2024. The results show that each region has distinct inflation patterns, leading to varied SARIMA models. Several regions exhibit strong seasonal patterns, particularly at the 12th lag. Based on the analysis, Papua and Maluku tend to have higher monthly inflation rates, while provinces such as DKI Jakarta and West Java show more stable and lower inflation. Monthly comparisons between regions indicate regional imbalances influenced by structural and seasonal factors. The best SARIMA model for each region was used to forecast inflation for the next three years. These forecasts are expected to serve as a foundation for formulating more targeted and effective economic policies to control national inflation.

Copyright
© 2025 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Download article (PDF)

<Previous Article In Volume
Next Article In Volume>
Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference of Economics, Management, Accounting, and Business Digital (ICEMAB 2025)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
25 December 2025
ISBN
978-94-6463-974-2
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-974-2_2How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2025 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Revi Anggreni
AU  - Ayu Wulandari
AU  - Agung Rizki Putra
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/12/25
TI  - Analysis And Forecasting of Inflation Rate in Indonesia
BT  - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference of Economics, Management, Accounting, and Business Digital (ICEMAB 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 4
EP  - 11
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-974-2_2
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-974-2_2
ID  - Anggreni2025
ER  -