The Belt and Road Initiative, Regional Variation, and Firm Productivity

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-777-4_69How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Belt and Road Initiative; Total Factor Productivity; Difference-in-Differences Model; Regional Heterogeneity; Firm Heterogeneity

Abstract

Using a difference-in-differences framework and panel data on A-share listed firms in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing from 2010 to 2024, this paper evaluates the effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on firm-level total factor productivity. The treatment group is innovatively defined along three spatial dimensions, including generalized, offshore core area, and onshore core area, and parallel estimations are conducted on the same full sample to identify spatial heterogeneity in policy effects. Empirical results indicate that the Initiative substantially increases productivity for firms located along the route overall, yet the gains are spatially selective and structurally heterogeneous. The marginal productivity improvement is larger in the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt core area than in the 21^st Century Maritime Silk Road area. Non-state-owned enterprises and export-oriented firms experience significant benefits; by contrast, state-owned enterprises and firms oriented toward domestic demand exhibit no significant effects. This study advances policy evaluation from a binary assessment of effectiveness to a more refined identification of which actors and which locations benefit most, thereby contributing empirical evidence on the micro-level transmission mechanisms of national strategies and informing more targeted policy implementation.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Jiayang Li
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/30
TI  - The Belt and Road Initiative, Regional Variation, and Firm Productivity
BT  - Proceedings of the 2026 8th International Conference on Economic Management and Cultural Industry (ICEMCI 2026)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 674
EP  - 686
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-777-4_69
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-777-4_69
ID  - Li2026
ER  -