Carbon Emissions Prediction of China Civil Aviation Based on Improved STIRPAT Model

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-845-5_37How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Civil aviation; Carbon emissions; Grey Correlation Analysis; STIRPAT Model; Partial Least Squares Regression

Abstract

After COVID-19, the development of civil aviation in the country has been revived, in order to achieve ‘Peak Carbon’, scientific forecasting of carbon emissions from civil aviation is essential. The study used grey correlation analysis to screen the factors affecting civil aviation carbon emissions, and finally obtained five key variables at the industry level: total transport turnover, passenger traffic, take-off and landing sorties, GDP, disposable income of urban residents and five key variables at the airline company level: total transport turnover, passenger traffic, flight hours flight, occupancy rate and operating revenue. Based on the relevant data from 2000 to 2024, the STIRPAT model was developed and improved using partial least squares regression to obtain carbon emission equations at both the industry and airline levels, and validated against the industry data using airline data. The results show that the improved STIRPAT model can accurately predict the civil aviation carbon emissions, and then predict the emissions in 2025-2030, and the prediction results show that the civil aviation carbon emissions in China will reach 228.42 million tons in 2030.

Copyright

© 2025 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Wenzhe Qi
AU  - Jingjie Chen
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/09/16
TI  - Carbon Emissions Prediction of China Civil Aviation Based on Improved STIRPAT Model
BT  - Proceedings of the 2025 6th International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management (ICMSEM 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 358
EP  - 367
SN  - 2667-1271
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-845-5_37
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-845-5_37
ID  - Qi2025
ER  -