Risk Prediction Research of Old Residential Area Renovation Projects Based on WBS-RBS and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-758-3_26How to use a DOI?

Keywords

renovation of old residential areas; risk prediction; WBS-RBS; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; AHP; consistency ratio

Abstract

As a key driver of urban renewal, the renovation of aging residential communities presents challenges such as tight schedules, dispersed work sites, and complex stakeholder relationships, harboring numerous potential risks. This study adopts a project management lifecycle perspective and employs the WBS-RBS matrix to identify risks in renovation projects. A risk assessment framework was developed encompassing three phases (pre-construction planning, construction execution, and post-commissioning operations) with 12 key indicators. A risk prediction model was established using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods, detailing the mapping relationship between composite scores (F) and five-tier risk classifications. Through AHP weight assignment and consistency checks (CR values <0.1) conducted by 15 cross-disciplinary experts, empirical analysis of a real-world project demonstrated a 75% prediction accuracy rate using multi-validation approaches including event logging, timeline deviation analysis, and post-construction evaluations. The study concludes with actionable risk mitigation strategies, providing quantitative decision-making references for risk prevention in similar projects.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Chenchen Ning
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/08
TI  - Risk Prediction Research of Old Residential Area Renovation Projects Based on WBS-RBS and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation
BT  - Proceedings of the 2026 7th International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management (ICMSEM 2026)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 261
EP  - 268
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-758-3_26
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-758-3_26
ID  - Ning2026
ER  -