Proceedings of the International Conference on Sustainable Green Tourism Applied Science - Engineering Applied Science 2025 (ICOSTAS-EAS 2025)

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Fuzzy Time Series and Double Exponential Smoothing in Farmer’s Terms of Trade Forecasting of Bali Province

Authors
Wayan Gede Suka Parwita1, Ni Luh Putu Depik Pariantini2, *, Ni Putu Ritra Trees Ari Kartika Hadi Saraswati1
1Politeknik Negeri Bali, Bali, Indonesia
2Institut Bisnis Dan Teknologi Indonesia, Bali, Indonesia
*Corresponding author. Email: depikpariantini@gmail.com
Corresponding Author
Ni Luh Putu Depik Pariantini
Available Online 31 October 2025.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-878-3_14How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Bali; Double Exponential Smoothing; Farmer’s Terms of Trade; Forecasting; Fuzzy Time Series
Abstract

The Farmer’s Terms of Trade (FTT) plays a vital role in supporting key sectors of the Indonesian economy and contributes significantly to improving household incomes. This study utilizes monthly FTT data from Bali, spanning from January 2017 to June 2021, sourced from the official website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The research aims to compare the forecasting accuracy of a modified Algorithm based on the Fuzzy Time Series method with that of the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) in predicting the FTT in Bali. The results of the accuracy assessment indicate that the Double Exponential Smoothing delivers superior and more accurate forecasting performance. This is demonstrated by its lower Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) compared to the modified algorithm based on Fuzzy Time Series. Specifically, with α = 0.9 and γ = 0.03, the DES method achieves an MSE of 1.73 and the lowest MAPE value of 0.61, confirming its effectiveness in modeling the FTT data.

Copyright
© 2025 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the International Conference on Sustainable Green Tourism Applied Science - Engineering Applied Science 2025 (ICOSTAS-EAS 2025)
Series
Advances in Engineering Research
Publication Date
31 October 2025
ISBN
978-94-6463-878-3
ISSN
2352-5401
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-878-3_14How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2025 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Wayan Gede Suka Parwita
AU  - Ni Luh Putu Depik Pariantini
AU  - Ni Putu Ritra Trees Ari Kartika Hadi Saraswati
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/10/31
TI  - Fuzzy Time Series and Double Exponential Smoothing in Farmer’s Terms of Trade Forecasting of Bali Province
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Sustainable Green Tourism Applied Science - Engineering Applied Science 2025 (ICOSTAS-EAS 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 112
EP  - 121
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-878-3_14
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-878-3_14
ID  - Parwita2025
ER  -