Quantitative Assessment of the Multi-Dimensional Impacts of U.S. “Reciprocal Tariffs” Policy: A Comprehensive Modeling Approach

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-701-9_25How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Reciprocal Tariffs; Trade Gravity Model; Policy Efficiency Index; Game Theory

Abstract

The 2025 U.S. “reciprocal tariffs” policy dramatically increased the U.S. trade-weighted average tariff rate from 2.44% to 20.11%, fundamentally reshaping global trade patterns. This paper develops an integrated quantitative framework to systematically evaluate the multi-dimensional impacts of this policy across three key sectors and on overall economic welfare. For soybean trade, we integrate a trade gravity model with partial equilibrium analysis, finding that U.S. soybean exports to China would virtually exit the market under 25% tariffs, while Brazilian market share would increase from 70.4% to over 95%. For automobiles, a tri-channel supply chain model and two-stage dynamic game framework reveal that Japanese direct exports would decrease by 26%, with Mexican production share rising from 25% to 40%, indicating multinationals rational choice of “circuitous production” rather than manufacturing reshoring. For semiconductors, a tiered market model with system dynamics simulation demonstrates that a balanced subsidy-centric strategy achieves optimal comprehensive performance (score 0.778) compared to tariff-centric approaches (0.722). Tariff revenue forecasting using an industry heterogeneity elasticity model with Monte Carlo simulation shows a net present value of only $32 million and Policy Efficiency Index of 0.05, indicating economic inefficiency. Our findings suggest that unilateral tariff protection is costly and inefficient, while comprehensive approaches integrating tariffs with industrial policies better balance economic efficiency and national security.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Xinyue Wang
AU  - Qian Wan
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/07/30
TI  - Quantitative Assessment of the Multi-Dimensional Impacts of U.S. “Reciprocal Tariffs” Policy: A Comprehensive Modeling Approach
BT  - Proceedings of the 2026 11th International Conference on Social Sciences and Economic Development (ICSSED 2026)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 227
EP  - 235
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-701-9_25
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-701-9_25
ID  - Wang2026
ER  -