Proceedings of the 2026 11th International Conference on Social Sciences and Economic Development (ICSSED 2026)

2026 11th International Conference on Social Sciences and Economic Development (ICSSED 2026)

📍Beijing, China🗓️ 20-22 March 2026
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The Impact of Multiple Shocks on Global Crude Oil Trade Based on the GTAP Model

Authors
Luyao Wang1, *
1College of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, China
*Corresponding author. Email: Wly011006@163.com
Corresponding Author
Luyao Wang
Available Online 30 July 2026.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6239-701-9_27How to use a DOI?
Keywords
GTAP model; crude oil trade; multiple shocks; trade impact
Abstract

Due to the fact that global crude oil trade is jointly affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, trade protectionism, and shortage of transportation capacity, in order to systematically evaluate the economic effects of global crude oil trade under multiple shocks, this paper uses the GTAP model to simulate three shock scenarios and a combined scenario: the increase in maritime distance, the increase in tariff barriers, and the decline in the coefficient of maritime technology progress. The study found that the simulation results of different scenarios have significant asymmetric and nonlinear amplification characteristics, among which the decline in the coefficient of technological progress has the greatest impact on global crude oil trade. The global flow of crude oil trade is moving towards “regionalization”, and the demand for long-distance crude oil trade is decreasing. The overall economic performance of countries and the impact on industries are not completely consistent. Based on the simulation results, this paper proposes that proactive measures should be taken to address various challenges faced by energy trade.

Copyright
© 2026 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2026 11th International Conference on Social Sciences and Economic Development (ICSSED 2026)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
30 July 2026
ISBN
978-94-6239-701-9
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6239-701-9_27How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2026 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Luyao Wang
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/07/30
TI  - The Impact of Multiple Shocks on Global Crude Oil Trade Based on the GTAP Model
BT  - Proceedings of the 2026 11th International Conference on Social Sciences and Economic Development (ICSSED 2026)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 250
EP  - 257
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-701-9_27
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-701-9_27
ID  - Wang2026
ER  -