Analysis of the Supply and Demand Mechanism of LNG Price Fluctuations in China: An Empirical Study Based on the VAR Model

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-835-6_90How to use a DOI?

Keywords

VAR model; Supply and Demand; LNG Price

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of China's LNG price dynamics from a supply-demand perspective using monthly data. Employing a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. We analyze the interrelationships among four key variables: the return of China’s LNG import price, the return of Brent crude oil price, the year-on-year change in European natural gas reserves, and the year-on-year change in China’s natural gas import. Impulse response analysis indicates that the impact of Brent crude oil price shock on the price of liquefied natural gas in China is relatively small and lasts for a short time. The impact of LNG import has a certain positive promoting effect on prices in the short term. The shock of natural gas reserves in Europe has shown a slight but persistent negative impact.

Copyright

© 2025 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Manqi Zhang
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/09/17
TI  - Analysis of the Supply and Demand Mechanism of LNG Price Fluctuations in China: An Empirical Study Based on the VAR Model
BT  - Proceedings of the 2025 3rd International Academic Conference on Management Innovation and Economic Development (MIED 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 856
EP  - 863
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-835-6_90
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-835-6_90
ID  - Zhang2025
ER  -