Analysis on Carbon Peaking Pathways for a Pilot City Based on a Hybrid LEAP Model

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-787-3_58How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Carbon peaking; LEAP model; Grey rolling model; Scenario analysis; Pilot city

Abstract

The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model is widely used for carbon emission forecasting, but its application in regions with limited statistical data remains challenging. This study proposes a hybrid modeling framework that integrates a grey rolling model GM (1,1) with LEAP to improve parameter forecasting accuracy under small-sample conditions. The method is applied to a national carbon peaking pilot city in southwestern China characterized by a tourism-dominated economy and 100% green electricity supply. The grey model generates baseline socioeconomic trajectories (GDP, population, sectoral structure) with a rolling window mechanism, while the LEAP model is customized with five demand sectors, including a dedicated tourism subsector. Three scenarios including Business as Usual (BAU), Energy Efficiency (EF), and Electricity Substitution (ES) are designed to simulate carbon emission pathways to 2030. Results show that the BAU and EF scenarios fail to achieve carbon peaking before 2030, whereas the ES scenario, featuring accelerated electricity substitution and a declining fossil fuel share, keeps emissions consistently below 2020 levels, showing the probability of achieving the goal ahead of schedule. The hybrid approach enhances statistical efficiency and regional relevance, offering a robust tool for carbon pathway analysis in data-limited settings.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Mingtao Shi
AU  - Jin Yang
AU  - Rui Su
AU  - Guobin He
AU  - Yuelin Bi
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/29
TI  - Analysis on Carbon Peaking Pathways for a Pilot City Based on a Hybrid LEAP Model
BT  - Proceedings of the 2026 4th International Conference on Management Innovation and Economy Development (MIED 2026)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 581
EP  - 589
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-787-3_58
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-787-3_58
ID  - Shi2026
ER  -