Traffic Safety Risk Assessment for the In-situ Demolition and Reconstruction Project of Overpass Bridges Based on D-S evidence Theory and Markov Chain

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-774-3_22How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Expressway reconstruction and expansion project; bridge demolition and reconstruction in situ; D-S evidence theory; Markov chain; risk assessment

Abstract

During expressway reconstruction and expansion, in-situ bridge reconstruction requires existing decks and piers to be demolished and new decks to be erected while traffic is kept open. To assess the resulting traffic safety risks, this study proposes an integrated method combining D-S evidence theory and Markov chains. A four-dimensional index system is first established, covering engineering characteristics, traffic operation, construction conditions, and the construction environment. Expert judgments are then converted into D-S evidence triplets to quantify support, non-support, and uncertainty for each risk level. On this basis, a Markov transition mechanism driven by uncertainty and adjusted by non-support is developed to translate cognitive uncertainty into risk-level transition probabilities. A case study of an overpass demolition and reconstruction project shows that the method can identify the initial risk level and reveal the evolution of medium- and high-level risks, thereby supporting early warning and dynamic traffic safety management.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Aisong Zhang
AU  - Daibing Gao
AU  - Shuo Pan
AU  - Zhongguang Wu
AU  - Jin Wu
AU  - Jiatian Hao
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/11
TI  - Traffic Safety Risk Assessment for the In-situ Demolition and Reconstruction Project of Overpass Bridges Based on D-S evidence Theory and Markov Chain
BT  - Proceedings of the 2026 5th International Conference on Mathematical Statistics and Economic Analysis (MSEA 2026
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 252
EP  - 263
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-774-3_22
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-774-3_22
ID  - Zhang2026
ER  -