Carbon Emissions Trading Policy and New Quality Productive Forces: A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on 282 Cities in China

DOI

10.2991/978-2-38476-507-2_4How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Carbon emissions trading; New quality productive forces; Difference-in-differences model

Abstract

Although carbon emissions trading pilot policy (CETP) have gained support globally as a climate mitigation measure, research on their interaction with new quality productive forces (NQPF) is limited. This study examines the impact of China's CETS on urban new mass productivity forces, identifies spatial and structural heterogeneity, and reveals the mechanisms linking environmental regulation and productivity change. This study uses panel data from 282 Chinese cities from 2009 to 2022 to quantify the new quality productive forces (NQPF) through physical and permeable elements. A quasi-experimental design employing multi-period double-in-differencing (DID), panel fixed-effects modeling, and three-step mediation analysis is used to assess policy effects and transmission paths. The results show that the carbon emissions trading system significantly improves the qualitative productivity of cities. This effect is more pronounced in developed regions due to their institutional capacity and innovation ecosystems. Non-resource cities outperform resource-dependent cities, reflecting a lower degree of path dependency. Cities located outside of old industrial bases experienced productivity growth, while old industrial zones constrained by technological lock-in saw little improvement. Carbon emissions trading systems promote qualitative productivity growth through green innovation and structural transformation, thereby enhancing knowledge spillovers and modernizing value chains.

Copyright

© 2025 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Jingwen Zhang
AU  - Chenyu Zhou
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/12/15
TI  - Carbon Emissions Trading Policy and New Quality Productive Forces: A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on 282 Cities in China
BT  - Proceedings of the 2025 4th International Conference on Public Management, Digital Economy and Internet Technology (ICPDI 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 23
EP  - 44
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-2-38476-507-2_4
DO  - 10.2991/978-2-38476-507-2_4
ID  - Zhang2025
ER  -