Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Sustainable Business Practices and Innovative Models (ICSBPIM-2025)

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Impact of Bitcoin Returns on U.S. Gold Using ARIMA and LSTM Models

Authors
Nitendra Kumar1, *, Shashwat Kapoor2
1Assistant Professor, Amity Business School, Amity University, Noida, Uttar Pradesh, 201303, India
2Analyst, Ameriprise Financial Services LLP, Gurugram, Haryana, 122015, India
*Corresponding author. Email: nkshukla.kumar4@gmail.com
Corresponding Author
Nitendra Kumar
Available Online 4 November 2025.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-872-1_33How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Bitcoin; US Gold; ARIMA; LSTM; Time-Series; Deep Learning; Volatility
Abstract

The research evaluates the relationship between Bitcoin returns and US Gold prices using both traditional and deep learning predictive models. It analyzes Bitcoin’s volatility through time-series data from 2017 to 2025 to assess its impact on US Gold prices, which have traditionally exhibited greater stability. Forecasting accuracy is examined by applying the ARIMA and LSTM to both asset classes. The LSTM model demonstrates superior performance compared to the ARIMA model, as evidenced by lower RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values, due to its ability to capture nonlinear trends and complex market dynamics. The findings suggest that Bitcoin’s price fluctuations may influence subsequent movements in gold prices, positioning Bitcoin as a potential economic indicator that challenges the traditional role of gold as a safe-haven asset. This study offers practical insights for investors, financial analysts, and policymakers, advocating for a revised portfolio strategy that incorporates Bitcoin and supports the use of advanced machine learning models in financial forecasting.

Copyright
© 2025 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Sustainable Business Practices and Innovative Models (ICSBPIM-2025)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
4 November 2025
ISBN
978-94-6463-872-1
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-872-1_33How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2025 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Nitendra Kumar
AU  - Shashwat Kapoor
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/11/04
TI  - Impact of Bitcoin Returns on U.S. Gold Using ARIMA and LSTM Models
BT  - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Sustainable Business Practices and Innovative Models (ICSBPIM-2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 515
EP  - 529
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-872-1_33
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-872-1_33
ID  - Kumar2025
ER  -