Research on Cross-Border E-Commerce and Air-Logistics Decision-Making under Variable Tariffs

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-787-3_23How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Tariff uncertainty; Three-stage dynamic game; Cross-border e-commerce; Air logistics

Abstract

Amid China–U.S. trade frictions and uncertain tariff policies, cross-border e-commerce and air-logistics firms face challenges in logistics-mode selection and coordination-mechanism design. This study develops a three-stage Stackelberg game to characterize multi-agent strategic interactions under tariff adjustments. We analyze how tariff levels affect logistics-mode choice, service prices, firm profits, and social welfare under both non-cooperative and cooperative settings, incorporating Shapley value for profit allocation by marginal contribution. Numerical simulations show that in the non-cooperative case, e-commerce firms switch to the overseas-warehouse model when tariffs exceed a critical threshold. Under cooperation, synergistic effects enable the direct-mail model to retain competitive advantage across the full tariff range, enhancing social welfare and optimizing profit structure. This research reveals the asymmetric shock mechanisms through which tariff policies affect the cross-border e-commerce ecosystem and extends multi-agent dynamic game theory applications in international trade and logistics coordination, offering insights for policy optimization and managerial decision-making.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Yunchun Cao
AU  - Junzhi Li
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/29
TI  - Research on Cross-Border E-Commerce and Air-Logistics Decision-Making under Variable Tariffs
BT  - Proceedings of the 2026 4th International Conference on Management Innovation and Economy Development (MIED 2026)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 207
EP  - 220
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-787-3_23
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-787-3_23
ID  - Cao2026
ER  -