Tripartite Evolutionary Game of SAF Promotion in Aviation

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-787-3_20How to use a DOI?

Keywords

carbon reduction; sustainable aviation fuel; evolutionary game; simulation

Abstract

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is a key way to cut aviation carbon emissions, but its early diffusion is limited by high cost, low supply, and uncertain firm returns. To show how policy can support SAF promotion, this paper defines the costs and benefits of three bounded-rational players: government, cargo airlines, and SAF producers. A tripartite evolutionary game model is built, solved with MATLAB, and tested through local stability analysis and numerical simulation. The results show that SAF promotion cannot rely on firms alone in the initial stage. Government subsidies and carbon tax policies can raise airline willingness to buy SAF and reduce the R&D burden of producers, but excessive subsidies weaken the government incentive. Airline market gains and net SAF gains strongly affect purchase behavior, while producer long-term and net gains drive capacity expansion. R&D investment has a negative effect on expansion. Clearer future returns for airlines and producers are therefore more effective than only raising taxes or subsidies.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Ziruo Jia
AU  - Saichuang Zhao
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/29
TI  - Tripartite Evolutionary Game of SAF Promotion in Aviation
BT  - Proceedings of the 2026 4th International Conference on Management Innovation and Economy Development (MIED 2026)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 174
EP  - 181
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-787-3_20
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-787-3_20
ID  - Jia2026
ER  -