Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Hotspot Detection of COVID-19 Cases in Medan City, Indonesia: A GIS-Based Approach

DOI

10.2991/978-2-38476-499-0_29How to use a DOI?

Keywords

COVID-19; GIS; Spatio-Temporal; Hotspot Analysis; Moran’s I; Getis-Ord Gi*

Abstract

This study examines the spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 spread in Medan City from 2020 to 2022, utilizing a Geographic Information System (GIS) approach. Case data per subdistrict was obtained from the North Sumatra Provincial Health Office and analyzed in three stages: calculation of the Cumulative Incidence Rate (CIR), Cumulative Fatality Rate (CFR), and Recovery Rate (RR); spatial autocorrelation analysis with Global Moran’s I; and detection of local clusters using Getis-Ord Gi* and Anselin Local Moran’s I (LISA). The results reveal a significant cluster pattern during the early and peak phases of the pandemic, with the highest Moran’s I value of 0.356 (p = 0.003) observed in February 2022. The subdistricts of Medan Selayang, Medan Polonia, and Medan Baru were consistently hotspots, while Medan Belawan and Medan Marelan were coldspots. The CFR value decreased from 33.33% in 2020 to 0% in 2022, indicating the effectiveness of the health system and the impact of mass vaccination. Overall, the spread of COVID-19 in Medan City exhibited a clustered pattern at the beginning of the pandemic, transitioning to a random pattern by the end of 2022. The GIS approach proved effective in detecting the spatial dynamics of the disease and became the basis for region-based health policy planning.

Copyright

© 2025 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Muhammad Ridha Syafii Damanik
AU  - Sirojuzilam Sirojuzilam
AU  - Heru Santosa
AU  - Samsuri Samsuri
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/12/12
TI  - Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Hotspot Detection of COVID-19 Cases in Medan City, Indonesia: A GIS-Based Approach
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Social Sciences and Interdisciplinary Studies (ICSSIS 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 341
EP  - 363
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-2-38476-499-0_29
DO  - 10.2991/978-2-38476-499-0_29
ID  - Damanik2025
ER  -