Spatiotemporal Evolution, Driving Mechanism and Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use in Changzhi city Based on PLUS Model and Geodetector

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-787-3_43How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Land use change; PLUS model; Geodetector; Driving factors; Changzhi city

Abstract

A century of intense mineral extraction has severely fractured local ecosystems, driving deep friction between industrial growth and landscape conservation. To decipher the evolution patterns and underlying driving factors of land use patterns in Changzhi, a major coal hub in Shanxi Province, this study collected three periods of land use data from 2010 to 2020. Focusing on the land use evolution, this study combined land use dynamic analysis, Geodetector and PLUS model to analyze its spatiotemporal characteristics and driving forces, and forecasted land use changes under four policy scenarios from 2020 to 2030. Our analysis shows that Changzhi’s land use remained stable from 2010 to 2020, with cultivated land, forest and grassland collectively accounting for over 80% of the total area. Land use showed a clear topographic gradient pattern: ecological lands were concentrated in mountainous regions, cultivated land clustered in basin areas, and construction land expanded linearly along urban peripheries. During this decade, forest and impervious surfaces increased by 11.22% and 32.34% respectively, while grassland decreased by 18.83%. Grassland was the most active conversion type, with 512.4 km² converted to forest and 583.8 km² to cultivated land. Geodetector results identified the nighttime light was the dominant driving factor (q = 0.104 in 2020). The PLUS model (OA = 0.85, Kappa = 0.78), validated against the 2020 actual land use data, predicted significant land use differences under four 2030 scenarios, with the ecological scenario best improving ecological security. These findings provide scientific references for optimizing Changzhi’s territorial space, protecting the ecological environment, and facilitating green, low-carbon transformation of resource-dependent cities.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Haoyuan Fu
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/29
TI  - Spatiotemporal Evolution, Driving Mechanism and Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use in Changzhi city Based on PLUS Model and Geodetector
BT  - Proceedings of the 2026 4th International Conference on Management Innovation and Economy Development (MIED 2026)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 431
EP  - 455
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-787-3_43
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-787-3_43
ID  - Fu2026
ER  -