From Weak Signals to Decisions: Simulation-Based Training as a Response to the Early-Warning Dilemma in Crisis Management

A Case Study of Exercise ILVES 2026 (Estonia)

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-817-7_12How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Weak Signals; Early Warning; Crisis Management; Decision-Making Under Uncertainty; Simulation-Based Training; Immersive Learning; Comprehensive National Defence

Abstract

Crisis management guidance tells decision-makers to act on weak signals – small, unclear hints that something may be going wrong. In practice this is very hard to do. Acting early means spending money and political capital on evidence that is not yet convincing, while waiting means acting once the crisis has started and the cheap options have gone. This paper calls this problem the early-warning dilemma. It argues that the problem is usually treated as a shortage of information when it is really a shortage of practice. Drawing on work about weak signals, early warning and cognitive bias, it sets out four pressures that push decision-makers towards acting too late. The paper then examines ILVES 2026, the largest crisis exercise ever held in Estonia (8–12 June 2026, more than 150 organisations, about 4,000 participants), described here by one of its organisers. The exercise was built on a six-step chain that begins with noticing change. Its scenario deliberately withheld a complete picture, organisations were assessed on paper before the week began, and assessors asked participants why they had decided as they did and checked the answers. The control team worked to a rule of keeping enough pressure on players that they did not wait for perfect information. The case shows a national exercise designed around the dilemma rather than around a script. Two things stay out of reach in a live exercise of any size, and immersive training is well placed to cover them. Five design principles with measurable indicators are proposed.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Aigo Allmäe
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/29
TI  - From Weak Signals to Decisions: Simulation-Based Training as a Response to the Early-Warning Dilemma in Crisis Management
BT  - Proceedings of the SAFAR Scientific Conference 2026 – Building Awareness through Immersive Learning (SSC-BAIL 2026)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 126
EP  - 140
SN  - 2667-128X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-817-7_12
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-817-7_12
ID  - Allmäe2026
ER  -